MidEast Report

THE SHARON PLAN
Interesting perspective from Edward S. Walker of the Middle East Institute:
"I had serious doubts when I first heard of Sharon’s Gaza proposal based on my concern that we not wind-up with a “Gaza first, Gaza only” solution. I have since come to believe, however, that what the Prime Minister is proposing may be the only way to break open the impasse that binds the West Bank and Gaza into a morass of violence. The reasons to embrace the Sharon proposal are numerous, particularly if there is linkage into the West Bank. Who could have imagined that it would be Arik Sharon who would propose giving up settlements? The precedential nature of this move is enormous, and the settler movement knows it. If Sharon goes forward with this plan, his right wing will very likely defect from the government and the party and Sharon will have to reconstitute his government with a new political alliance."

Sharon's proposal is radical for several reasons, the most notable of which is that he has always been one of the main political patrons of the Israeli Jewish Settler Movement since its beginnings in the wake of the 1967 war. Sharon's governing coalition depends upon the cooperation of ultra-nationalist, pro-settlement elements who are committed to a vision of Greater Israel, a Jewish State stretching from the Jordan River to the Mediterranean, and most of these have threatened to abandon him if he tries to withdraw from Gaza.

As Martin Indyk has pointed out, the Israeli government hates to give something for nothing, and it might seem at first glance that by unilaterally withdrawing from Gaza and abandoning settlements which cost millions of dollars to erect, Sharon is giving the Palestinians something for nothing: ceding control of Gaza without demanding promises of a cease-fire or anything. But while Sharon may be getting nothing from the Palestinians in Gaza, his gesture is more likely intended to get something from Bush when the two meet this week. By giving up Gaza, Sharon probably wants to get Bush's support for essentially re-drawing the Green Line, the border between Israel and the future Palestine, to annex most of the West Bank settlements into Israel, precisely the “Gaza first, Gaza only” solution that Walker fears.

If so, this would be a very shrewd move by Sharon. All of the settlements in the occupied territories are illegal under international law, specifically Article 49 of the Fourth Geneva Convention. By giving up a small portion of land which was taken illegally, Sharon will try to hold on to the much larger portion of land which was taken illegally, and get to look like he's compromising in the bargain.

UPDATE: Looks like this is precisely what Sharon has in mind:
(from the New York Times)
Prime Minister Ariel Sharon of Israel on Monday listed five major settlement blocs in the West Bank that he promised to retain as part of his unilateral separation plan from the Palestinians and visited the largest of them.

Mr. Sharon spoke in Maale Adumim, a settlement just east of Jerusalem and home to more than 30,000 Israelis, shortly before his departure for the United States, where he will meet with President Bush at the White House on Wednesday.

"Only an Israeli initiative will assure the future of the large settlement blocs and the security zones," he told residents of Maale Adumim.

(Here's a picture of Maale Adumim I took when I visited Israel and the Palestinian Territories last summer. This is what Sharon refers to as "natural growth.")

Of course, the success of Sharon's plan depends a lot on his success in extracting promises of support from Bush. It's an election year, and Bush has been campaigning hard to capture some of the Jewish vote from the Democrats. Stay tuned on that.

One thing is for sure, though. Keeping the settlements in the West Bank, and maintaining the vast security apparatus, checkpoints, and system of Jewish-only highways and Palestinian Bantustans which that will require, will not achieve either peace or security. It will not come close.

posted by Matt Duss @ 12:22 PM